000 AXNT20 KNHC 191728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING PAST THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N24W TO 8N26W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 28W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W/66W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 26N67W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W. THIS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 55W-60W...AND FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 60W-71W IMPACTING THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 24N79W TO 12N82W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 79W-84W...FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-80W...AND FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 78W-84W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 26N87W TO 13N90W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ERN GULF AND FAR W CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-88W...AND FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-89W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 10N21W 6N33W 9N45W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-89W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE SW GULF ALONG 24N92W TO 19N93W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG THE NW GULF COAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 92W-96W AFFECTING COASTAL SW LOUISIANA AND ERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE COASTLINE. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN GULF CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DRY AIR OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF CENTRAL CUBA. ELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE/N CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF CENTRAL CUBA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 78W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 26N67W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W ARE ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 55W-60W...AND FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 60W-71W AFFECTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AND APPROACHING TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB AND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N56W AND 37N23W RESPECTIVELY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N43W WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE ENTIRE E ATLC CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 25N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON