000 AXNT20 KNHC 191051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 24W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 61W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W/81W S OF 23N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W/89W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 15N22W 8N30W 9N50W 11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 27W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 50W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MEXICO ALONG 98W S OF TAMPICO MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 81W S OF 28N MOVING W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 20 KT SURFACE WINDS ALSO PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 82W-87W. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA