000 AXNT20 KNHC 190534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 22W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W/63W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 60W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W S OF 21N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 73W-80W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS ALONG 85W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 84W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N20W 5N30W 7N50W 13N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 12W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 48W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W GULF ALONG 96W/97W S OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 90W-94W. 20 KT SURFACE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 82W-85W. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 28N78W TO 24N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA