000 AXNT20 KNHC 171722 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20 KT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF E CUBA ALONG 75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N15W 7N30W 12N50W 10N55W 12N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W GULF ALONG 94W S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 88W-96W. FURTHER E...20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE W TO S TEXAS AND MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W OVER THE E GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E HONDURAS TO W PANAMA ALONG 83W. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 13N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 81W-85W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT... THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 23N68W TO 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 62W-68W. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA