000 AXNT20 KNHC 170003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 7N TO 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W FROM 8N TO 16N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 17N MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 10N30W 11N40W 10N50W 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W AND 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM N TO S ALONG 91W...FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W...DIVIDING THE GULF IN HALF. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W MOVING WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. A DRYER AIRMASS IS NOTED WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AND LEADING TO ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL REMAIN UNDER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO DRYER AIR ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W FROM 10N TO 19N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N65W 17N66W. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 17N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ALL THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED IN CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS S OF 27N W OF 76W...NEAR THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM 21N61W TO 17N66W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1024...1025...AND 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA