000 AXNT20 KNHC 161720 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AT 12N AS WELL AS FURTHER N AT 16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASSES THIS SYSTEM LIMITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 66W-71W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N20W 10N30 12N41W 10N50W 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS NEAR 30N96W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5 KT WINDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 90W S OF 29N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N/29N BETWEEN 86W-93W. 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 25N. SIMILAR WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE W TO THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE NW OVER S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E HONDURAS TO W PANAMA ALONG 83W. A 1011 MB LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO NOTED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N60W TO 16N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-71W. EXPECT... THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THREE SURFACE HIGHS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 32N60W...32N42W... AND 36N28W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS N OF THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 78W-80W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FURTHER MORE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 58W-61W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CLEAR OUT OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MRF/NAR