000 AXNT20 KNHC 160552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 6N TO 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 7N TO 15N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASSES THIS SYSTEM LIMITING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/66W S OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 10N26W13N36 12N46W 10N62W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SENEGAL LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM S OF AXIS E OF 14N AND NEAR 8N25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 10N38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF INCLUDING ALSO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 87W S OF 27N ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS WITH A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N90W AT 0300 UTC. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF BY SAT. NE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-13.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ALONG THE VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA BORDER. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN CUBA...IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW...ANALYZED 1008 MB NEAR 10N75W ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP...AND THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF PANAMA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 83W FROM 11N TO 18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE MOVING MAINLY WWD IN A BRISK TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF SE FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE WWD FRI AND SAT TOWARD THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDAS TO HISPANIOLA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR 16N55W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N56W TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 55W-63W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0150 UTC INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO AROUND 25N. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1025 AND 1028 MB HIGHS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STRONGEST ONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR