000 AXNT20 KNHC 160001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 5N TO 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 6N TO 17N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 10N20W 11N30W 10N40W 11N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE EMERGING THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA. OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF 90W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 26N85W 24N85W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W AND 94W AROUND A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THIS REGION...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTH BAHAMAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NORTH COLOMBIA. OUTSIDE THIS AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 86W FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 18N. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 82W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING WEST INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N E OF 66W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 74W...NEAR THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE SE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N60W TO 17N64W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 54W-64W. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1025 AND 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 160001 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 5N TO 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 6N TO 17N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 10N20W 11N30W 10N40W 11N50W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE EMERGING THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA. OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF 90W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 26N85W 24N85W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF E OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W AND 94W AROUND A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THIS REGION...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTH BAHAMAS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NORTH COLOMBIA. OUTSIDE THIS AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 86W FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 18N. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 82W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING WEST INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N E OF 66W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 74W...NEAR THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE OVER THE SE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N60W TO 17N64W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 54W-64W. AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1025 AND 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA