000 AXNT20 KNHC 151738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 33W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-68W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N16W 11N25W 12N32W 10N37W 13N45W 10N53W 11N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 85W S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR PRECIPITATION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FLORIDA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N85W TO N OF HONDURAS AT 17N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER S...THE ITCZ TRAVERSES PANAMA WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 75W-85W. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF CUBA NEAR 24N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 68W-80W. EXPECT... THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 72W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N61W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N35W. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 21N54W 17N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 56W-60W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF CUBA NEAR 24N77W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N20W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 22N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA