000 AXNT20 KNHC 141718 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 20W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 40W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SUPPRESSED DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE FAR SW GULF...MEXICO...AND THE E PACIFIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 97W-100W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 15N20W 7N30W 10N41W 8N50W 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 7W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA ALONG 26N80W 21N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N88W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND MEXICO FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 97W-100W. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA TO MOVE W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 67W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 78W...ESPECIALLY OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA... MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE N BAHAMAS W OF 76W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N58W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N42W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 17N E OF 63W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 63W TO BEYOND FLORIDA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N FLORIDA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA