000 AXNT20 KNHC 141109 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 19W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N56W TO 1N58W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SUPPRESSED DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 7N ACROSS NE S AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE FAR SW GULF AND THE E PACIFIC WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AXIS LYING IN THE E PACIFIC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 94W-98W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 8N30W 8N40W 6N48W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 43W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N88W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W HAS FLARED UP NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 94W-98W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N87W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH STRONGER SLY WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS COASTLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS CUBA. AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY ELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCE BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA ACROSS CUBA ALONG 26N81W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-82W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 65W-71W IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND ERN HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AROUND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. A FEW STATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT THE PRESENCE OF DUST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE ENTERING THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA MOVES WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN N OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM S OF 21N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA ACROSS CUBA. FARTHER E...RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N43W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 38W-54W N OF 20N...WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE S OF 20N AND E OF 38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON