000 AXNT20 KNHC 140535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE HUGS THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 17W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL WENT FROM NWLY TO ELY AROUND 33O UTC INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 17W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO S OF THE AXIS FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SUPPRESSED DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 56W-59W OVER INLAND S AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 93W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE FAR SW GULF AND THE E PACIFIC WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AXIS LYING IN THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO S OF 19N BETWEEN 91W-102W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-95W IN THE SW GULF. SEE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 11N27W 10N44W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-30W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF ALABAMA NEAR 29N86W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE SW GULF HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W HAS FLARED UP NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MEXICO WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SW GULF S OF 20N. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N87W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH STRONGER SLY WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER CUBA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS CUBA. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY ELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO HAITI ALONG WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-77W. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AROUND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. A FEW STATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT THE PRESENCE OF DUST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE ENTERING THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN N OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 63W-68W JUST N OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS. FARTHER E...RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N42W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 38W-54W N OF 20N...WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE S OF 20N AND E OF 38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON