000 AXNT20 KNHC 131734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N33W TO 4N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AREA OF DUST IS ALSO NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS SUPPRESSED AND MASKED DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM AND RESTRICTED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 92W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS NOW MOVED MOSTLY W OF HONDURAS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 11N35W 8N42W 10N53W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 42W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 21N97W. EXPECT...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W. CONVECTION IS NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 75W-78W MOVING W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. A DOMINATE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 41N44W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N27W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 17N E OF 63W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 63W TO BEYOND FLORIDA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA