000 AXNT20 KNHC 120435 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N15W TO 8N20W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE TRAILING EDGE A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND TOWARD THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THUS LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-18N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N29W 8N42W 6N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-32W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 40W-48W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 34W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W COVERING THE S GULF S OF 22N WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE N GULF ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 1009 MB LOW OVER S/CENTRAL GEORGIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA INTO S GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S MEXICO AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 91W-94W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 81W AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N75W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM 73W-80W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 65W AND IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-67W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC TO NEAR 28N74W. THERE IS STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 29N80W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR 24N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 81W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N59W TO JUST NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE W FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 68W-77W INCLUDING PORTION OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 75W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER 900 NM ENE OF BERMUDA THEN WEAKENS AND NARROWS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E ATLC IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW