000 AXNT20 KNHC 111157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 19W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N68W TO 8N69W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC IS CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 68W-71W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N81W TO 8N82W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 73W-78W OVER COLOMBIA...AND NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 79W-87W IMPACTING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 22N94W TO 11N94W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 93W-98W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N22W 11N35W 6N47W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 13W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 36W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUYANA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 58W-61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 93W-98W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SW MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N87W KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IS ENHANCED A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N E OF 89W. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MAINLY NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. MANY STATIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE REPORTING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS COMBINATION IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO INLAND VENEZUELA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WWD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 35N67W TO 22N73W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 75W-79W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 59W-62W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 36N49W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N45W...E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN THE AZORES ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 23N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N11W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON