000 AXNT20 KNHC 110550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0430 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO 7N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 19N THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY ALSO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W OVER COLOMBIA...AND FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 79W-86W IMPACTING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 95W S OF 24N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 96W-97W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N22W 8N34W 5N49W 5N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 10W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-44W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 93W-96W...AND A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 96W-97W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SW MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N85W KEEPING MUCH OF THE ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IS ENHANCED A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 18N86W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MAINLY NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. MANY STATIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ARE REPORTING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS COMBINATION IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO INLAND VENEZUELA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WWD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 36N68W TO 24N73W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 68W-73W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N59W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 58W-62W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 37N50W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N45W E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN THE AZORES ISLANDS AND CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 15N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON