000 AXNT20 KNHC 101724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURGE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR ACCOMPANIED BY DUST SURROUNDS THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 34W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURGE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR ACCOMPANIED BY DUST IS HOWEVER EAST OF 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 63W-68W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-17N BETWEEN 78W-86W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 91W S OF 24N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 10N30W 10N38W 7N50W 10N62W. BESIDES THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 11W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 58W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ALONG THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA PRODUCING SHOWERS N OF 31N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AN LIGHT 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N100W MOVING W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE S GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO MORE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS DUE TO THE WAVE ALONG 77W. SHOWERS ARE OVER THE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE WAVE ALONG 63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. STRONG 30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N70W 26N74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 68W-73W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N54W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N27W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 25N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 55W-58W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 15N-32N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA