000 AXNT20 KNHC 100604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0550 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N33W TO 8N36W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST SURROUNDING THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. WITH DUST IMPACTING THE WAVE N OF 12N...CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO THE ITCZ WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 18N60W TO 9N63W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN INFRA-RED IMAGERY WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WITHIN 100 NM BETWEEN 68W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W FROM 14N TO 23N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS BRINGING PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED INLAND...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 80W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W...WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 11N30W 10N40W 8N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST AFRICA FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 11W AND 20W SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE W OF 20W...WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AND PROVIDING RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 88W S OF 22N IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21 AND WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 88W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...S OF 16N W OF 80W INTO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE IMPACTING THE SE CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING GENERALLY S OF 16N E OF 72W. FOR MORE INFO REGARDING THESE TROPICAL WAVES...SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 24N W OF 70W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO 25N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE FAR EAST CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N51W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 26N58W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 55W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA