000 AXNT20 KNHC 091159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 30W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES BETWEEN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST AND AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE W AFRICA COAST. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST EXTENDS AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE RESULTING IN CONVECTION BEING CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 8N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER FOLLOWS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS ALSO INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EAST CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-68W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W MOVING W AT 4-8 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-23N W OF 76W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N30W 7N40W 9N52W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA-BISSAU...SENEGAL...THE GAMBIA...AND MAURITANIA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF THESE COUNTRIES. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 40W...AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF W OF 95W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...A SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 25N E OF 87W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 78W...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N87W...AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO EXTEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 15N IMPACTING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC SPINNING NEAR 35N74W...JUST ABOUT 50 NM E OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THROUGH 32N73W EXTENDING SW TO 29N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE N...SEVERAL OTHER SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION TODAY FOLLOWING A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR FROM THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED WNW OF THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-26N W OF 77W. THIS TROUGH IN PARTICULAR IS ASSOCIATED TO THE NORTHERN SECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING AN UPPER LEVEL MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RIVER CREATING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 65W-73W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 25N55W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA