000 AXNT20 KNHC 090604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 27W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES BETWEEN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST AND AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE W AFRICA COAST. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST EXTENDS AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE RESULTING IN CONVECTION BEING CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W FROM 7N TO 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER FOLLOWS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS ALSO INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-63W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 10N TO 22N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-24N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 13N25W 10N30W 7N40W 9N50W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA-BISSAU...SENEGAL...THE GAMBIA...AND MAURITANIA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF W OF 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...A SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 25N E OF 87W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 78W INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N87W...AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO EXTEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N IMPACTING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC SPINNING NEAR 34N73W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE W ATLC W OF 64W SUPPORTING SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST ONE ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THROUGH 32N71W EXTENDING SW TO 29N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE SAME LOCATION...SEVERAL OTHER SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FOLLOWING A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR FROM THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOUR. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 74W-81W. THIS TROUGH IN PARTICULAR IS ASSOCIATED TO THE NORTHERN SECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 63W IS GENERATING AN UPPER LEVEL MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RIVER CREATING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 64W-69W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 25N55W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA