000 AXNT20 KNHC 082358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 26.2N 98.4W AT 08/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 10 NM W OF MCALLEN TEXAS MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 94W OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPAT2/WTNT32. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N23W TO 04N25W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES BETWEEN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST AND AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM 08N-18N EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE W AFRICA COAST. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST EXTENDS AROUND THE WAVE...RESULTING IN CONVECTION BEING CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 17W-23W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N47W TO 14N50W TO 06N51W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER FOLLOWS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 09N-22N TO 35W. A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS ALSO INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 26N42W INTO THE ITCZ AXIS REGION NEAR 06N51W. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N59W TO 07N62W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY S OF 14N BETWEEN 56W-62W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 57W-64W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N80W TO 08N77W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 74W-82W. WHILE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 75W-81W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 12N24W 07N30W 07N49W 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 26W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING W OF A LINE FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 30N94W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. WHILE THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS IS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 94W-97W ALONG AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT SE WINDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF... A SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROVIDING THE GULF WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS E OF 90W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 82W AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND MAXIMUM DAYTIME INSTABILITIES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 280 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXTEND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL ALONG 60W/61W IS IMPACTING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N74W THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE W ATLC SUPPORTING SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS SURFACE TROUGHS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 73W-81W. FARTHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS A 1010 LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N74W THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N72W TO 29N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 69W-78W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 63W IS PROVIDING MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CREATING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 63W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35N/36N. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 24N4W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N53W AND COINCIDES WITH THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 53W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N38W TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. 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