000 AXNT20 KNHC 081213 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010 CORRECTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DIRECTION FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 2 IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25.7N 96.2W AS OF 1200 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 80 MI E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...OR ABOUT 165 MI NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W...MOVING NW INTO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO N OF 22N. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO COVERS INLAND PORTIONS OF MEXICO S OF 20N...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND WESTERN HONDURAS PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION IN THESE REGIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY. ALSO...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED WEST OF THE AXIS NEAR 12N22W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED N OF 7N DUE TO SAHARAN AIR LAYER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 7N EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 5N62W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 57W-61W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTER CUBA NEAR 21N77W SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W MOVING W AT 2-5 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY. MOST OF THE ENERGY GENERATED BY IT CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 4N40W 5N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W EMBEDDED IN SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA PRODUCING SE WINDS 15-25 KT N OF 25N W OF 88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 90W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE FAR NW BASIN...W OF 83W...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W...FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W. THIS WAVE APPEARS STATIONARY AND MOST OF THE ENERGY GENERATED BY IT CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SPINNING NEAR 34N72W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N62W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC ALONG 78W FROM 23N TO 28N PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE FAR UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE OVERALL TROUGHING IN THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A BROAD SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND 35N52W...PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 27N50W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 51W FROM 22N TO 28N. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA