000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...OR ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 89W. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO COVERS INLAND PORTIONS OF MEXICO S OF 20N...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE...PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION IN THESE REGIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED WEST OF THE AXIS NEAR 12N22W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED N OF 7N DUE TO SAHARAN AIR LAYER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 7N EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N58W TO 5N62W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-61W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTER CUBA NEAR 21N77W SOUTHWARD ACROSS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W MOVING W AT 2-5 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY. MOST OF THE ENERGY GENERATED BY IT CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 4N40W 5N50W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N94W EMBEDDED IN SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 89W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA PRODUCING SE WINDS 15-20 KT N OF 25N W OF 88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 84W. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LEAVING THE NW BASIN...N OF 18N W OF 83W...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W...FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO REDUCED ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND MOST OF THE ENERGY GENERATED BY IT CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SPINNING NEAR 34N72W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A RATHER N TO S ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 70W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. A RATHER SHORT SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC ALONG 78W FROM 23N TO 27N PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE FAR UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SUPPORTING THE OVERALL TROUGHING IN THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY TWO MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 36N23W AND 35N52W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 27N50W IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA