000 AXNT20 KNHC 070605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL NORTHWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION BETWEEN 85W-93W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THIS SYSTEM. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 84W-92W OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W FROM 8N TO 18N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS MOVING AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 35W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 12N TO INLAND EAST GUYANA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N69W ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE COLOMBIA NEAR 14N72W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. THIS PORTION OF THE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 62W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND FARTHER SOUTH OVER NE COLOMBIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-74W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 7N40W 5N50W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 19W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N W OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 93W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W SOUTHWARD TO A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL NORTHWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION BETWEEN 85W-93W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY A DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N96W. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 22N W OF 93W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST DUE TO A THIN AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVING W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE FAR WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NE COLOMBIA ALONG 71W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W...INCLUDING THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH OVER NE COLOMBIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-74W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N65W...SUPPORTS AN SURFACE LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 32N60W 27N64W 23N71W...THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N79W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE FAR UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FURTHER SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM 24N69W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 59W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N40W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 22N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA