000 AXNT20 KNHC 062359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS FRACTURED N-NW AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME ABSORBED BY A REMNANT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1606 UTC DEPICTED SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 84W-88W OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. WITH THE INCREASED WIND FIELD SPEEDS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-32N BETWEEN 85W-92W...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MIDDLE GULF WATERS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND SE LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 29W-36W. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE E OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N53W TO 11N55W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED AS A RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE AND REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 51W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N69W ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 07N70W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY THAT STRETCHES FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 25N64W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 63W-72W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 26N WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A SIMILAR AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER NW VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 68W-73W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 09N33W 10N36W 08N53W 07N57W 08N65W. A COMPLEX OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST AND IS LOCATED FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 14W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 32W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 92W...LARGELY LOCATED E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE SW LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL NORTHWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION BETWEEN 85W-92W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING N OF 23N W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO MAXIMUM DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DYNAMICS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION THAT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W AND OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WESTERN PANAMA N-NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ENTIRE AREA FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N86W PROVIDING AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FARTHER EAST... A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NW VENEZUELA ALONG 70W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-73W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH OVER NW VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS E OF 68W TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 12N60W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N63W EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32N64W TO 26N70W THEN WESTWARD TO 76W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N70W 27N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 21N TO THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 59W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH... ENERGY FRACTURED NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO 23N66W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 60W-65W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 22N44W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N46W AND DIPS TROUGHING TO 14N BETWEEN 40W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE E-SE CENTERED NEAR 17N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN