000 AXNT20 KNHC 061753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS INTO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 26N90W 18N88W 8N89W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W. WHILE THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THOUGH TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 32W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 2N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 51W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N69W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO NW VENEZUELA NEAR 7N70W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 68W-74W...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N22W 11N35W 8N46W 8N59W 11N66W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 32W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 49W-51W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO TO THE N FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 85W-93W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER LOUISIANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 30N93W THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MOVING ALONG THE NRN GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N95W...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN...AND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE WRN GULF AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES SLOWLY NW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WRN CUBA FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER ERN JAMAICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W FROM 10N-12N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO NW VENEZUELA IS IMPACTING HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS BOTH THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. THIS DRY AIR IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 37N64W ALONG 28N68W ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N89W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA EXTENDS ALONG 32N58W 28N64W 25N73W 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...BROKEN OFF FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM 25N64W TO 22N66W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N57W. FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N34W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO 22N46W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 35W-55W CENTERED NEAR 22N46W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 20N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON