000 AXNT20 KNHC 051758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-87W. WHILE THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 10N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE LIES W OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 43W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N60W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N64W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 61W-65W...AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 11N25W 9N34W 6N45W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 31W-38W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 31W-40W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W FORM 4N-8N ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 54W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO NEAR 30N88W MEETING A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO A 1011 MB LOW S OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE W ALONG 28N92W 28N94W. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF 86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 86W-92W. THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE S CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N96W SQUISHED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W IMPACTING PANAMA/COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ TO THE S OF PANAMA...AS WELL AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR KEEPING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FAIR. FARTHER E...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 61W-65W...AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 57W-62W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE TRACKS WNW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 39N61W ALONG 30N70W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N86W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 31N56W ALONG 26N65W 29N77W 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 60W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 66W-76W. SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACTIVITY IS ALSO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND APPROACHING SE FLORIDA FROM 22N-27N W OF 78W. S OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN. E OF THE RIDGE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N57W IS STRENGTHENING CONVECTION NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 57W-62W. FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 42N26W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 37W FROM 26N-31N SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 39W. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON