000 AXNT20 KNHC 051202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 0900 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W/84W FROM CUBA W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO W PANAMA MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 78W-86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 76W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WHILE THE WAVE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND WRN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N/19W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 9N43W TO 2N45W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 21N58W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N63W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AND THE TILT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 20N56W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 6N27W 4N38W 8N54W 7N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 54W S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-40W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 30W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND INDUCING A NARROW INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO TO NEAR 26N91W. AT 0900 UTC...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE GULF NEAR 29N90W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG THE S COAST OF LOUISIANA TO THE COAST OF ALABAMA THEN SE ALONG 30N86W WITH STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE W ATLC N OF CEDAR KEY OVER APALACHICOLA BAY TO THE WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 81W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LEAVING THE MOST OF W GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WHILE THE ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 28N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N57W SW ALONG 26N66W 29N77W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 60W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 68W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC TO 26N W OF 70W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N ACROSS CUBA W OF 77W TO THE COAST OF S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 15N56W EXTENDING TO 23N BETWEEN 45W-63W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N49W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 19N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES AND A WEAKNESS ALONG A BENIGN SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 36W FROM 23N-30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW