000 AXNT20 KNHC 050605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 0300 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W FROM CUBA JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO PANAMA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N79W TO 21N81W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N77W TO 15N82W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 TO 13 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF AFRICA AND IS ALONG 17N S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 12N42W TO 3N44W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 41W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 20N57W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N63W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AND THE TILT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N18W 4N32W 6N42W 5N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N51W TO 9N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-29W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 31W-38W...AND FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND INDUCING A NARROW INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF VERA CRUZ MEXICO TO NEAR 26N92W. AT 0300 UTC...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE GULF NEAR 28N90W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE W ATLC N OF CEDAR KEY OVER APALACHICOLA BAY TO THE 1011 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF 92W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE W GULF LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND OVER SW HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 28N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N57W SW TO 27N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N77W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND ST. AUGUSTINE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 60W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 68W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC TO 25N W OF 70W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N ACROSS CUBA W OF 77W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 13N55W EXTENDING TO 23N BETWEEN 43W-64W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N50W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 20N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW