000 AXNT20 KNHC 050010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF CONSIDERABLY HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ENCOMPASSING THE WAVE. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THE VISIBLE SPECTRUM. CURRENT WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 2N TO 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ON INFRA-RED IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N55W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W MOVING W 15-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N20W 7N30W 8N40W 6N50W 7N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 53W..OFF THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W SLOWLY MOVING NORTH APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ENE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W...AND CONTINUING EAST INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW CENTER ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE NE GULF...N OF 24N E OF 91W. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ELSEWHERE EAST OF 90W...SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE N ALONG WITH THE FRONT BRINGING CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WNW INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. WEATHER CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THIS WAVE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. READ OR SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSION ABOVE OR VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. READ OUR TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS WAVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 55W N OF 23N. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N57W SW TO 26N65W WNW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS...AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS N OF 22N. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE SPINNING NEAR 386N0W. FURTHER E... A BROAD 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N26W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A WIDE AREA W OF 53W N OF 14N. WITHIN THIS REGION OF FAIR WEATHER...A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA