000 AXNT20 KNHC 041712 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W DRIFTING W. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N50W TO INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W MOVING W 15-10 KT. A LARGE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 8N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 77W-86W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 8N43W 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W DRIFTING N. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N80W 29N87W 27N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW AND FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO AT 27N90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N100W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF TEXAS...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO DRIFT N TO THE N GULF COAST WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONVECTION W OF JAMAICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N78W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO 27N64W TO 27N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 72W-79W. FURTHER E... A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N26W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 8N-22N E OF 55W TO W AFRICA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 18N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA