000 AXNT20 KNHC 041040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 8N40W TO 3N42W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 36W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N51W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO 7N60W MOVING N 15-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N AND WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE ENTIRE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N76W TO 17N80W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 6N33W 8N42W 6N54W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO THE ITCZ E OF 20W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-49W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-27W...WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 5N TO THE EQUATOR. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROWING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY SW TO NEAR 23N92W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING...AT 0900 UTC...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N90W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N86W TO THE 1011 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N E OF 90W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. THE THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 94W-96W. LINES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INLAND OVER THE NW GULF OF W LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 26N W OF 90W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 68W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MOST DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 26N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N59W SW TO 28N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N76W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-31N W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N46W SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N51W TO 20N56W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 17N34W TO NEAR 10N37W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 14N52W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO THE W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW