000 AXNT20 KNHC 040543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N38W TO 2N41W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N52W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO 5N60W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 16N77W TO 17N79W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 7N27W 5N41W 9N58W 9N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N16W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 11N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM ALABAMA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY SW TO NEAR 25N90W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING...AT 0300 UTC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N89W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 25N88W TO 24N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA TO THE 1012 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N E OF 89W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N E OF 85W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N77W DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 68W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MOST DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-85W TO OVER CUBA. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 28N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N59W SW ALONG 26N66W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND FROM 30N TO OVER CUBA W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 65W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N52W TO 19N56W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 20N35W TO NEAR 11N37W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 14N49W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW