000 AXNT20 KNHC 031727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N47W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 3N53W MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 50W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 11N20W 6N30W 6N40W 9N51W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W... AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 39W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W MOVING W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N80W 28N86W 27N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF CENTERED NEAR 27N85W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N99W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF TEXAS...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE W TO 90W AND THE FRONT TO DRIFT N TO N FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 16N TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N62W TO 28N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 64W-80W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N42W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 8N-22N E OF 47W TO W AFRICA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 17N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 31N57W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA