000 AXNT20 KNHC 031044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N46W TO 4N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 120/150 NM NW OF LINE FROM 13N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA WITH A CYCLONIC ROTATION OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS INLAND NEAR 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N14W 6N32W 9N50W 8N56W 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE RIO GRANDE IN CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND COVERS THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM SW GEORGIA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N85W TO 24N88W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING...AT 0900 UTC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING SW NEAR 27N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 26N87W THEN NW TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA TO THE 1012 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N E OF 90W TO OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 92W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 21N W OF 82W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 16N E OF 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N81W TO OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN BETWEEN 73W-86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THERE IS ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA CAN BE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N W OF 65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N62W SW TO 27N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N73W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W ALONG 27N67W TO BEYOND 32N58W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND FROM 26N-30N W OF 68W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N48W SW TO OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N64W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC E OF 30W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 18N44W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING BETWEEN THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGHS AND IS ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW