000 AXNT20 KNHC 030557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N43W TO 8N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA WITH A CYCLONIC ROTATION OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS INLAND NEAR 8N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED 10N13W 6N29W 11N46W THEN ALONG 8N54W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 51W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 19W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S TEXAS EXTENDS N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND COVERS THE W GULF W OF 88W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM SW GEORGIA TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 28N85W TO 26N87W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AT 0300 UTC A SURFACE 1013 MB LOW NEAR 28N86W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 26N86W THEN NW TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC N OF TAMPA TO THE 1013 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 89W TO OVER FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM PALM BEACH TO NAPLES INTO FLORIDA BAY TO NEAR 25N83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 84W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CONVERGING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S MEXICO AND ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY BETWEEN 92W-95W. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS N0T EXPERIENCING MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 16N E OF 64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N80W TO OVER PANAMA NEAR 8N81W. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 73W-84W. THERE IS ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA CAN BE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N W OF 65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N62W SW ALONG 27N69W TO 29N78W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N78W ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR PALM BEACH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W ALONG 27N69W TO BEYOND 32N61W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 57W-76W AND W OF 76W BETWEEN CUBA AND 30N INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N49W SSW TO OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N64W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC E OF 30W WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 18N42W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING BETWEEN THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGHS AN ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW