000 AXNT20 KNHC 030002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 42W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND ACROSS EASTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 73W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA FROM BETWEEN 68W-75W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 7N30W 8N40W 7N50W 5N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 35W...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS W OF 47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH ENTERING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N83W WESTWARD TO LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT NEAR 29N85W. ALSO...A WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS ALONG 25N81W 23N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH...COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GOLF E OF 93W...AND THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N. 20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH ADVECTING TOWARD FLORIDA FROM THE SE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN ALONG 80W S OF 14N. ALSO...A TROPICAL WAVE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 73W S OF 12N. THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE SYSTEMS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF 73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF 65W N OF 23N. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W TO 28N71W...BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NRN FLORIDA COAST. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE FAR W ATLC N OF 32N W OF 65W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR 27N78W TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAS DRAWN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N43W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA