000 AXNT20 KNHC 021732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 5N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 39W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W/71W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N29W 9N36W 7N40W 10N46W 5N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 30W-33W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36W FROM 7N-12N. NO DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NRN FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N85W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W OF THE LOW TO CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS. STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY 20 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF CONVERGING ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. 20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE ALSO NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE FAR NERN GULF. WHILE THIS FRONTAL LOW IS BAROCLINIC IN NATURE...IT IS BEING MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER SRN TEXAS NEAR 29N98W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARD FLORIDA FROM THE SE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. IT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO NEAR ERN HONDURAS AT 16N83W. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 76W-87W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA MAY ALSO BE AIDING THE CONVECTION. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ALONG 70W/71W APPROACHES THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-68W WITH CLEAR WEATHER PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF 65W. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N72W TO THE NRN FLORIDA COAST SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR 26N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAS DRAWN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN BASIN. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING TO THE E NEAR 24N59W. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 62W-66W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 56W-58W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N44W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS E OF 45W ACCOMPANIED BY DUST S OF 25N EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N45W WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 24N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON