000 AXNT20 KNHC 020605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS IN MEXICO NEAR 23.3N 102.4W AT 02/0300 UTC. ALEX IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 35 MILES/55 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ZACATECAS IN MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO FOR THE TIME PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 02 JULY /EIGHT O'CLOCK IN THE MORNING WERE AT LEAST 11 INCHES IN THE STATE OF TAMAULIPAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND AT LEAST 12 INCHES IN THE STATE OF NUEVO LEON THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF TAMAULIPAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 18N TO 28N. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/40W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N25W TO 8N39W...INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA...BEYOND 6N60W IN GUYANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM BRAZIL TO SURINAME FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SIERRA LEONE COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. OTHER DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA/THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS COMPLETELY INLAND IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 80W AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 84W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 25N79W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 81W TO THE NORTH OF 20N. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND 81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 84W. REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N59W CYCLONIC CENTER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N67W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 25N79W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 81W TO THE NORTH OF 20N. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND 81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS STAYED AWAY FROM THE AREA BECAUSE OF ALEX NOW HAS A FREE PASS IN ORDER TO MOVE SOUTHWARD MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AT LEAST REACHES THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 80W AND LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N14W TO 25N20W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 25N20W TO 27N33W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N33W TO 28N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N59W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N67W. WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS ALONG 65W/67W...IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 23N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N74W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. THE 24N59W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT