000 AXNT20 KNHC 020004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 101.2W MOVING W NEAR 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. FURTHERMORE...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W FROM 2N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS VENEZUELA ALONG 66W S OF 12N MOVING W 8-12 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 60W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W...WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 9N40W 6N50W 8N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE REGIONS N OF 25N AND E OF 86W. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND ITS INTENSITY IS DECREASING RAPIDLY...MUCH OF THE WRN GULF COAST STATES ARE STILL UNDER A HIGH CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN EXTREME SRN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THE SRN GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE DRY AND CLEAR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF SHOW E TO SE WINDS UP TO 2O KT. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS MOISTURE FROM ALEX REMAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST N OF CUBA WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 15N W OF 76W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 16N74W ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA S OF 12N IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 24N81W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS W OF 75W S OF 26N. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 25N60W...FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NOTED FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N64W ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 16N74W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N45W KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA