000 AXNT20 KNHC 011731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 1500 UTC TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 100.3W...OR ABOUT 265 MILES WSW OF LA PESCA MEXICO...OR ABOUT 150 MILES E OF ZACATECAS MEXICO MOVING W NEAR 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 985 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ALEX CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. THE MEXICAN STATES TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON HAVE EACH REPORTED 24 HOUR TOTALS OF NEAR 12 INCHES. FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SRN TEXAS AND THE NW GULF COAST. MUCH OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 99W-105W...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 84W-101W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N32W TO 1N36W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 34W-37W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 32W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 55W-64W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 6N29W 9N37W 7N48W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-21W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 25W-33W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 38W-44W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... DESPITE TROPICAL STORM ALEX MOVING INLAND INTO MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO. E TO SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN GULF W OF 96W...WITH WINDS REACHING 20 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN GULF N OF 27N W OF 83W. MUCH OF THE WRN GULF COAST STATES HAVE FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES IN EFFECT DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS ACCUMULATED FROM ALEX. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SRN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THE SRN GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE DRY AND CLEAR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS MOISTURE FROM ALEX REMAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE CONUS APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN IS DRY AND CLEAR TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING JUST N OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO CENTRAL AMERICA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 75W-84W AFFECTING CUBA AND JAMAICA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA TO COLOMBIA ALONG 9N/10N ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 15N71W ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES S OF 13N E OF 65W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING N OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W IS ENHANCING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 31N68W TO 26N74W...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA S OF 23N BETWEEN 75W-84W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCING MOISTURE ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS ERN CUBA. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N63W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 15N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 55W-61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR THE NRN PORTION OF THE WAY ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE N CENTERED NEAR 35N56W AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N45W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR 22N59W TO 32N18W SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDING N OF 30N...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE S OF 21N CENTERED NEAR 14N43W. 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