000 AXNT20 KNHC 010601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AROUND 01/0200 UTC...IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SOTO LA MARINA...WHICH IS ABOUT 110 MILES/180 KM TO THE SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH/165 KM/HR...MAKING ALEX A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX IS NEAR 24.1N 98.2W AT 01/0600 UTC. ALEX IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 35 MILES/60 KM TO THE NORTHWEST OF LA PESCA MEXICO...AND ABOUT 135 MILES/215 KM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO FROM 30/1500 UTC SHOWED AMOUNTS THAT WERE RANGING FROM APPROXIMATELY 8 INCHES IN THE STATES OF CHIAPAS AND GUERRERO...TO APPROXIMATELY 12 INCHES IN THE STATE OF OAXACA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE MEXICO COAST AT 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W...AND FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN WESTERN MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W IN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THIS AREA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. THAT PRECIPITATION BECAME STRONGER...THE CLOUD TEMPERATURES BECAME WARMER...AND THEN THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WEAKENED. ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 7N21W 9N29W 6N43W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA AND VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COASTLINES OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF ALEX. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N/33N BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND MISSISSIPPI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPANS THE AREA FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO MISSISSIPPI. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THANKS TO A 26N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AT A FAR DISTANCE AWAY FROM HURRICANE ALEX...COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 80W TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING/WEAKENING/RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...AS WELL AS IN THE OPEN WATERS. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N78W THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N20W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N43W...TO THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N62W. WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 24N63W...TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 13N70W. THE 21N56W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT