000 AXNT20 KNHC 301754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX IS NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 30/1800 UTC. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 6 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 110 MILES/175 KM TO EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO...AND ABOUT 130 MILES/210 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO ARE RANGING FROM APPROXIMATELY 8 INCHES IN THE STATES OF CHIAPAS AND GUERRERO...TO APPROXIMATELY 12 INCHES IN THE STATE OF OAXACA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE MEXICO COAST AT 20N TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 89W IN MISSISSIPPI AND REALLY CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF LOUISIANA WITH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHANGED QUITE A BIT FROM THE 30/0600 UTC POSITION...BASED ON SUNY-ALBANY AEW DIAGNOSTICS. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE IS APPARENT. SHOWERS MAY BE NEAR THE WAVE...BUT THEY MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N14W TO 9N26W 6N40W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA 8N60W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 21W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF ALEX. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THANKS TO A 26N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO FLORIDA... TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AT A FAR DISTANCE AWAY FROM HURRICANE ALEX...COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N74W...TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N63W AT LEAST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N76W THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N23W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N43W...TO THE 21N55W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W. WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N58W 21N59W 17N61W. THE 21N55W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT