000 AXNT20 KNHC 301145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 95.3W AT 30/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 155 MILES E OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 220 MILES SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING W-NW AT 06 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 92W-98W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW GULF FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 89W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N26W TO 17N25W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 23W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 23W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N47W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 45W-53W. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 44W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 43W-52W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 09N26W 06N40W 06N55W 10N70W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 15W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF 90W. OTHER AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF COAST TO 32N. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N90W TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF ALEX AND IS PROVIDING A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CONTINUE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE OUTER BANDS AND ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS OVER THE BASIN AND SE CONUS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...STRONG SE WINDS TO 30 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BETWEEN 85W-90W. THE APPROACH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA... AND MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAINING MAINLY W OF 88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 79W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 74W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PANAMA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 13N DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N BETWEEN 73W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N67W. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W THIS MORNING. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED WEST AND IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 24N55W TO 15N61W. LONG-TERM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY A NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT FRACTURED AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ANALYZED FROM 26N-30N ALONG 74W AND IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 72W-78W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 24N55W TO 15N61W. THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE ORIGINATED FROM A FRACTURED PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF 50W. THE TROUGH PRECEDES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N54W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N39W KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N25W TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 20N17W THAT IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CONVECTION LOCATED OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA THIS MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN