000 AXNT20 KNHC 300557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 94.8W AT 30/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 170 NM E-SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 220 NM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING W AT 04 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 89W-98W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 90W-100W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N24W TO 16N25W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 21W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 22W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N45W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 45W-52W. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 44W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N25W 06N33W 06N47W 07N60W. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 12W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 33W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF 88W. OTHER AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF COAST TO 31N. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N90W TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF ALEX AND IS PROVIDING A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CONTINUE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS OVER THE BASIN AND SE CONUS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM HURRICANE ALEX DIRECTLY IMPACTING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W...STRONG SE WINDS TO 30 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 12 FT N OF 23N BETWEEN 85W-90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAINING MAINLY W OF 88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 79W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 74W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PANAMA S OF 09N DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N BETWEEN 73W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N65W. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 23N53W TO 14N60W. LONG-TERM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY A NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT FRACTURED AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ANALYZED FROM 25N-30N ALONG 73W AND IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER EAST FROM 25N-30N ALONG 63W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS E-NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 23N53W TO 14N60W. THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE ORIGINATED FROM A FRACTURED PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF 47W. THE TROUGH PRECEDES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N28W KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N27W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 20N18W THAT IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN