000 AXNT20 KNHC 291757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEAR 22.9N 93.6W AT 29/1800 UTC...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 270 MILES/435 KM TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO... AND ABOUT 320 MILES/515 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.94 INCHES WAS OBSERVED IN MERIDA MEXICO...AND A TOTAL OF 0.67 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED IN MONTERREY MEXICO DURING THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE CENTER FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...FROM 23N TO 24N ALONG 90W...FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 90W...INCLUDING REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO TO LOUISIANA. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N19W 12N21W AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 21W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. OTHER ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N48W 7N47W AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 46W/47W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE RUNS ALONG THE NICARAGUA COASTLINE...CROSSING INTO NORTHERN COSTA RICA...AND ENDING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 7N86W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE BROKE AWAY. IT IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 23N79W 20N81W...EXTENDING FROM CUBA TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 9N20W 4N33W 6N46W... INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 18W AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AT A FAR DISTANCE FROM TROPICAL STORM ALEX...COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 77W/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N74W...TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EXTREME EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND AND ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.18 INCHES WAS OBSERVED IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DURING THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 65W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 26N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BEYOND EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE 26N74W CENTER BEYOND 31N73W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 64W AND THE COASTS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N50W TO 24N56W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W FROM 24N TO 31N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N38W TO 17N46W TO 15N57W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT