000 AXNT20 KNHC 291156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 92.7W AT 29/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 335 NM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 NM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 07 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 88W-95W...AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 83W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 06N-19N ALONG 18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 15W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 01N-14N ALONG 47W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 39W-53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 43W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 17N83W TO 09N84W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AXIS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS S OF 15N W OF 81W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N20W 04N30W 06N47W 05N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 24W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 83W. ALEX IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SW GULF AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY N-NW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND IS PROVIDING THIS AREA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THIS FLOW IS LADEN WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT E-SE TRADEWINDS ARE GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N83W ALONG THE COAST IF NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 14N W OF 82W... INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 18N59W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 69W AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC REMAINING LARGELY W OF 78W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N69W TO 23N72W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N73W. SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 67W-76W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N36W KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N-29N ALONG 60W. ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W MOVING W-NW. ALOFT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 18N59W WHICH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE NE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WATERS N OF 20N E OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN