000 AXNT20 KNHC 290556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 91.8W AT 29/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 360 NM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 NM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 07 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER AND NORTH OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 85W-99W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 04N-16N ALONG 16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 12W-21W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 04N-16N ALONG 45W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 37W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 41W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 17N80W TO 09N84W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AXIS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA... AND HONDURAS S OF 15N W OF 83W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N18W 04N36W 06N46W 04N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 22W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 95W. ALEX IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SW GULF AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY N-NW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT NEAR COASTAL WATERS W OF 86W THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND IS PROVIDING THIS AREA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THIS FLOW IS LADEN WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT E-SE TRADEWINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 76W-84W. THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N80W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W IS ALSO AIDING IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 83W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N72W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 13N73W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 16N. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY TRADES E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC REMAINING LARGELY W OF 78W. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ALONG 28N68W TO 23N69W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N72W. SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 68W-76W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N35W KEEPING GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N-27N ALONG 58W. SHALLOW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N57W WHICH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-62W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE NE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WATERS N OF 20N E OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN