000 AXNT20 KNHC 272346 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 90.9W AT 27/2100 UTC NEARING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COASTLINE MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 85W-93W...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO/NRN GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 89W-95W. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THESE AREA...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS STILL HIGH ON AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 18N5W 14N5W 3N9W. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE AXIS ACROSS WRN MALI AND GUINEA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W. THIS WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N37W TO 3N40W MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED S OF 11N. THE WAVE IS ALSO W OF A SURGE OF RELATIVE ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 34W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS FOLLOWING A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SEEN ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS FARTHER W OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...BUT IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N25W 7N40W 4N56W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-31W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-50W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 51W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 94W. ALEX IS APPROACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS. ONCE THIS OCCURS...ALEX IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA...WITH MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AS MOISTURE WITH ALEX REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALSO COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-86W AFFECTING PANAMA/COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE E ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 22N68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N68W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MOISTURE AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 27N65W TO 20N67W SUPPORTED BY A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY E OF THE AXIS FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 35N37W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE BASIN. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 54W E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ALONG 31W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON