000 AXNT20 KNHC 271807 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 90.6W AT 27/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF 90N BETWEEN 82W AND 95W...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W...THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS E OF 97W FROM 11N TO 16N...AND REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THESE COUNTRIES...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS STILL HIGH ON AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT ENTERS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE EMERGING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICA COAST AT SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 8N40W 4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 40W. SCATTER WEAK CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX...CURRENTLY CENTERED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE CITY OF ESCARCEGA...ARE SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF S OF 90N BETWEEN 82W AND 95W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT ENTERS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW WITH STRONG CONVECTION AFFECTING THE W AND NW COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT WWW.NCH.NOAA.GOV CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX IS IS NOW OVER THE WEST YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS....STRONG BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS ALEX CONTINUES ITS WNW TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PART OF THE ITCZ CROSSES THE FAR SW BASIN...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 74W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC IS GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE BASIN N OF 16N E OF 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 72W S OF 14N. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH THE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 27N64W TO 20N66W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND 23N67W AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AROUND A BROAD 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W...PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA